Sunday, March 23, 2014

Miles' Challenge Statistics & The Lead Painters' League




Well I feel much refreshed after sleeping a good portion of the weekend. I received his excellent note from Miles the indentured Challenge Statistician:

Yes, it’s now the part of the Challenge where I prove to the world that I’m a geek of astonishing geekness - here are the stats of this years Painting Challenge
Total Points Scored 59,263!
That’s the equivalent of 11,853 28mm infantry figures being painted - that’s a full division in 1:1 scale!
So how can we assess this years spectacular performance?  First off there’s the economic impact
If we assume the economic value per figure is the following
Figure $  2.50
Paint $  0.30
Basing $  0.25
Painting Time $  7.50  (30 minutes a $15.00/hour - I raised this estimated from last year given the comments I was too stingy)
        Total $10.55
Base Value Created $125,049.15
Velocity of Figure Acquisition Multiplier: 3  (we we acquire 3 figures for each one painted)
Total Value Created  $375,147.45!!!!! 
Yet again, the Challenge is a veritable miniature economic stimulus package - I hope that figure manufacturers across the globe are ramping up production as we could face severe shortages in the coming months based on the predicted buying activity to replenish our stocks.
Another way to look at the success of this years extravaganza is from an efficiency viewpoint.  This year we had 61 participants generate 59,263 points, with the average per participant coming out to 971 points.  Last years Challenge generated 42,079 points from 47 Ronin, yielding an average per painting Ronin of 895 points
So lets see here, the Challenge produced both increases in participants (reach), gross production (volume) and efficiency (rate) - that’s a very rare triple win in the business / investing world.  One usually gets an increase in one of the three factors at a cost to the others.  If this was a company we’d be going to IPO land with these kind of results.
Anyway you look at it, this year’s Challenge was a smashing success - well done to all the participants and Mr Campbell for a wonderful experience this year.

Great work Miles!  Thank you for your valued if rather bizarre insight to our little venture.

On another note I've decided (against better judgement) to join this year's Lead Painters' League (LPL). As in past years this season will be made up of 10 submissions, one per week, with extra points being awarded for brand new work and specific themes. 

My painted versions to follow in a week...


This first week has 'Realms of Fantasy' as its theme and so I decided to order some wonderful Goblin figures sculpted by the talented Tom Meier from Thunderbolt Mountain Miniatures. They have this wonderful 1980's feel to them, much like his early work for Ral Partha. They remind me of many carefree late nights playing D&D with my dorky friends.

Unfortunately the figures arrived during the last days of the Challenge and so I had only a few hours on Friday to work on them, in addition to the two of the other five-figure submissions required for entry. In fact I had to pull another all-nighter on Friday to make the Saturday submission deadline (sounds familiar). Consequently they are bit of a rush job, and definitely not my best work (I'm deservedly getting trounced in this first round), but I still had fun working on them and I really wanted to participate in the League as some motivation to get some of my own work done after being so absorbed with the Challenge.



Anyway, I urge you to check out the League in order to see the great efforts of all the participants. It's good fun with many beautiful miniatures on display.

In accordance to the LPL rules there is a photo blackout on the painted stuff until the round has concluded. With this being the case I should have some pics up for a bit of show-and-tell next Sunday.

23 comments:

  1. Putting the *anal* back into *analysis* ;) But some stunning statistics there! And every submission edited, posted and scored by Curt...

    Best of luck with the LPL, Curt.

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  2. Love the analysis, although as someone who teaches statistics I should be offended. However I will say that while figures don't lie, liars figures. And Miles seems to be doing a lot of figuring!
    Cheers, PD

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  3. How tremendous, I feel a greater sense of worth knowing that we band of painters have contributed so much to our hobby - bravo chaps! Best of luck with the League Curt!

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  4. Curt, for being a rush job, they look damn fine.

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  5. Great analysis Miles. However, on the points front we aren't comparing like-for-like as the bonus points for the theme rounds this year will have had a distorting effect. Nevertheless, it is still awesome how much work we have managed to churn out between us over the past three months.

    Good luck in the LPL Curt :)

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  6. Glad you had a chance to snooze and recover from your endeavors! Best of luck in LPL...

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  7. Wow.
    I would never have guessed.
    Good look Curt

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  8. I'm probably throwing your stats right off Miles. My wife always says I'm a statistical anomaly. I think she means than in a nice way!

    Nothing to be ashamed about with your first entry Curt, especially given circumstances. Good luck from here on in!

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  9. Valid point from Tamsim... maybe you should revisit your statistics ;-)
    @ Curt: Good luck in this new challenge! I'm pretty sure it comes as a relieved to let some others do the organising part.

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  10. Accuracy? Logical Consistency?

    I can't be bothered with silly little details like those, they just get in the way of the point I'm trying to make.

    If we've learned anything from the 2008 financial "meltdown", I think you will agree it's this - I'm a financial-type person, so you can trust me.....

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  11. Wow, thats a lot of cash added to the economy! I like the stats!

    Not a criticism, but I would think that number is way too low though, isn't it? I'd have a low average per fig at about $5 per 28mm, no? Maybe I'm too used to the $10+ per fig from GW or $20+ from forgeworld?

    I'd also say at least 2 hours (at a LOW number) per 28mm fig, and at least $20 an hour, you don't want us below poverty level do you???

    Regardless, still a lot of CASH!

    @Curt.... you are simply mad... You just finished one insane amount of work, and jump into more?? I knew there was a reason I liked you :-)

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  12. You have an interesting idea of resting, Curt.
    Seeing Miles' analysis puts my experience of being a spectator of this year's Challenge in perspective - while I hoped to comment on each entry, it became a visual and mental firehose and I just couldn't keep up. An awesome collective achievement and some very fine work displayed.

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  13. That was a brilliant write-up Miles! Whoever said accountants are boring was dead wrong. I've begun restocking my lead pile, doing my part to keep the industry solvent as it were.

    I'll be watching you in the LPL Curt (sounds creepy doesn't it?). That is some serious competition over there and when it ends I always feel a bit sad as I get locked into waiting for the entries to post on Sundays. I would say you're daft for taking this on right after this has finished, but you will grow even more as a painter by the end of it, so it will be worth it. Wishing you the absolute best!

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  14. Nice analysis and those miniatures look excellent!
    cheers

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  15. Great stats, Miles!
    Thanks for creating them.

    Good luck for the LPL, Curt !

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  16. Lies, damn lies , and statistics! An interesting take on the economic benefits alright

    Good luck with LPL Curt.

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  17. Statistics are like Marmite you love em or hate em, either way my mountain is in need of re building ;)

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  18. Thanks for your words of encouragement folks! It's all good fun and it's nice not to have to worry about administrating anything right now.

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  19. Yay, statistics, I'm convinced.

    I saw your entry Curt, vey nice but you're up against some stiff competition. I've never worked up the courage to enter.

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    1. Thanks Phil. I had a hard time getting any traction with the figures. No fault of the castings, probably more to do with simple exhaustion than anything. I think I'll go back later this week to touch them up a bit before putting them up on the blog.

      You really should enter Phil as your work is very good, certainly in the 80th percentile of the LPL. The trick is to have the work done on time, week after week. THAT is the rub.

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  20. This is the first time I have ever seen Keynsian economic principlies actually applied in a relevant way :)

    Congrats to all for the hard work. And to MichaelA for whipping me soundly. Let me know what Perry product to order for you :)

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  21. great write up miles well done what fun well i only lasted a few weeks bought an ss boxset and have already completed it since the challenge ok i bought another boxset ok and a half track and an amour car ok and a panzer IV

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  22. I was way down on last year so I guess someone picked up my slack

    Ian

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